A look at the latest Spectre property report
We’ve been going through the most recent Spectre property report here at Samuel Wood in
Shropshire, and the positive news is we are looking at a more positive fourth quarter.
Spectre’s Property Reports help agents build valuable relationships with buyers, prospects, and vendors, at the touch of a button.
Quarter three stats:
As we enter the third quarter of the year, we see a seasonal slowdown across the market, and this is normal and typical for this time of year.
So it's really important to take this into account alongside the current economic conditions when analysing any trends emerging in the market.
As the industry continues to adjust to higher mortgage rates and reduced demand, regional
variations are beginning to emerge.
Happily, here in Shropshire we often talk about the fact that we buck national trends. This is still true now and though it’s fair to say that things slow down around this time every year, Shropshire remains a destination county and sales remain steady.
Regions with a lower average house price are performing better as buyers in more affordable markets remain more active.
But sellers are continuing to grow “restless” as demand wanes, according to the report. This
quarter shows a 13% increase in vendors switching agents, marking the highest level since
2019.
This is a testament to our traditional values and modern approach when it comes to marketing properties, along with our Mayfair office which provides us with national marketing.
Longer time on the market and challenging selling conditions could be factors contributing to this trend, as sellers seek alternative estate agents.
The report states: “Many might say that the period of 'easy sales' is over, so vendors may demand more from their agent in this type of market and therefore are more likely to switch when those expectations aren't met.
"With vendors reacting to longer selling times and a regional divergence in sales activity, it’s
becoming more vital for agents to understand local market dynamics to effectively navigate
the market."
Which here at Samuel Wood we take very seriously.
New listings
New listing volumes have shifted this quarter with a decline in new properties coming to market.
With a 12% decrease in new listings versus last quarter, this quarter has been quieter than most but doesn’t necessarily signal a cause for concern.
One interesting trend to emerge is the outperformance of rural areas compared to urban, as we continue to see here in Shropshire.
Rural areas have experienced an uptick in new listings this quarter; this could be as more households sell up and move back into urbanised areas.
Alternatively, there could be a more active market in rural areas currently, where budgets might stretch further outside high-cost city centres.
More homeowners in rural regions could be mortgage-free and unencumbered with the rising mortgage rates, helping to stimulate activity in this market. However, the spotlight falls on Greater London, which has seen the most significant decline in new listings in August, with a substantial 16% drop.
Predictions for Q4:
Sales agreed are expected to be 15% below the 5-year average next quarter, likely ending the year not too dissimilar to the performance we've seen throughout the year, slow but
stable.
It's worth noting though that we expect sales agreed figures to finish above Q4 2022.
Agents may fare better than last year without the unsteadiness caused by the mini-budget debacle.
The recent decision to maintain the base rate at 5.25% should provide some added comfort as we move into the final quarter for agents and home movers alike.
It's expected lenders will further reduce their rates in light of this news in an effort to remain competitive. This will come as a relief for current first-time buyers and those on tracker mortgages and could have a positive impact on sales completing.
However, the Bank of England also stated housing remains one of the signs of weakness in the economy with investment down 7.7% YoY and falls in both prices and transactions.
The pause in increasing the base rate has provided a much-needed break for the industry, allowing time for some confidence to return.
The effects aren't likely to be immediate; seasonality will likely dictate the direction of sales agreed for the rest of the year but we might see a rise in new listings as optimistic sellers look towards home moving in the new year.
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01584 875207.